Pat Connaughton
SF, Notre Dame · 2015 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #41 (BRK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #53 (#14 at his position); he went #41, 12 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.5 years old on draft night (born 1993-01-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Notre Dame.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 9" at 6' 5" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 637 games over 11 NBA seasons (~71% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 637 |
| Minutes / game | 18.4 |
| Points / game | 5.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.3 |
| Assists / game | 1.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 25.3 |
| VORP | 4.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.5 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 215 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 9" |
| Age on draft night | 22.5 |
| Born | Arlington, MA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #53 overall (#14 SF) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 38 | Darrun Hilliard | redraft #40 |
| 39 | Juan Pablo Vaulet | redraft #46 |
| 40 | Josh Richardson | redraft #15 |
| 42 | Olivier Hanlan | redraft #47 |
| 43 | Joe Young | redraft #38 |
| 44 | Andrew Harrison | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.