Josh Richardson
SG, Tennessee · 2015 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #40 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #50 (#9 at his position); he went #40, 10 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.8 years old on draft night (born 1993-09-15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Tennessee.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 10" at 6' 6" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 554 games over 10 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 554 |
| Minutes / game | 28.5 |
| Points / game | 11.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.0 |
| Assists / game | 2.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 27.7 |
| VORP | 5.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.6 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 200 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 10" |
| Age on draft night | 21.8 |
| Born | Edmonton, OK |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #50 overall (#9 SG) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 37 | Richaun Holmes | redraft #14 |
| 38 | Darrun Hilliard | redraft #40 |
| 39 | Juan Pablo Vaulet | redraft #46 |
| 41 | Pat Connaughton | redraft #16 |
| 42 | Olivier Hanlan | redraft #47 |
| 43 | Joe Young | redraft #38 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.