P.J. Hairston
SG, UNC · 2014 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #26 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #18 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.5 years old on draft night (born 1992-12-24).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UNC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 9" at 6' 5" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 games over 2 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 111 |
| Minutes / game | 18.0 |
| Points / game | 6.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.9 |
| VORP | -1.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.9 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 229 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 9" |
| Age on draft night | 21.5 |
| Born | Greensboro, NC |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #18 overall (#4 SG) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 23 | Rodney Hood | redraft #21 |
| 24 | Shabazz Napier | redraft #24 |
| 25 | Clint Capela | redraft #3 |
| 27 | Bogdan Bogdanović | redraft #14 |
| 28 | C.J. Wilcox | redraft #44 |
| 29 | Josh Huestis | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.