Nick Smith Jr.
PG, Arkansas · 2023 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #27 (CHO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #27: teams let him slide 13 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.2 years old on draft night (born 2004-04-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Arkansas.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 141 games over 3 NBA seasons (~57% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 141 |
| Minutes / game | 17.5 |
| Points / game | 7.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.6 |
| Assists / game | 1.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | -1.0 |
| VORP | -2.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.6 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 180 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.2 |
| Born | 2004-04-18 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#4 PG) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 24 | Olivier-Maxence Prosper | redraft #16 |
| 25 | Marcus Sasser | redraft #19 |
| 26 | Ben Sheppard | redraft #18 |
| 28 | Brice Sensabaugh | redraft #35 |
| 29 | Julian Strawther | redraft #24 |
| 30 | Kobe Brown | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.