Marcus Sasser
PG, Houston · 2023 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #25 (MEM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #37 (#7 at his position); he went #25, 12 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.8 years old on draft night (born 2000-09-21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Houston.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 172 games over 4 NBA seasons (~52% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 172 |
| Minutes / game | 16.0 |
| Points / game | 7.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.4 |
| Assists / game | 2.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.0 |
| VORP | 0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.8 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 11.7 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 193 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.8 |
| Born | 2000-09-21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #37 overall (#7 PG) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 22 | Dariq Whitehead | redraft #47 |
| 23 | Kris Murray | redraft #20 |
| 24 | Olivier-Maxence Prosper | redraft #16 |
| 26 | Ben Sheppard | redraft #18 |
| 27 | Nick Smith Jr. | redraft #55 |
| 28 | Brice Sensabaugh | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.