Nenad Krstić
C · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #24 (NJN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 overall (#19 at his position), but he lasted until pick #24: teams let him slide 10 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.9 years old on draft night (born 1983-07-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 419 games over 7 NBA seasons (~73% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 7 |
| Games | 419 |
| Minutes / game | 25.2 |
| Points / game | 10.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 21.5 |
| VORP | -1.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.6 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 18.9 |
| Born | 1983-07-25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#19 C) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 21 | Qyntel Woods | redraft #30 |
| 22 | Casey Jacobsen | redraft #23 |
| 23 | Tayshaun Prince | redraft #5 |
| 25 | Frank Williams | redraft #38 |
| 26 | John Salmons | redraft #11 |
| 27 | Chris Jefferies | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.