Nate Robinson
PG, Washington · 2005 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #21 (PHO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.1 years old on draft night (born 1984-06-01).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Washington.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 618 games over 11 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 618 |
| Minutes / game | 22.5 |
| Points / game | 11.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.3 |
| Assists / game | 3.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 27.8 |
| VORP | 8.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.5 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 180 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.1 |
| Born | Seattle, WA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#5 PG) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 18 | Gerald Green | redraft #25 |
| 19 | Hakim Warrick | redraft #28 |
| 20 | Julius Hodge | redraft #53 |
| 22 | Jarrett Jack | redraft #16 |
| 23 | Francisco García | redraft #21 |
| 24 | Luther Head | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.