Moritz Wagner
PF, Michigan · 2018 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #25 (LAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: length. Details below.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 7' 0" tall (+0.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #38 (#5 at his position); he went #25, 13 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.2 years old on draft night (born 1997-04-26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Michigan.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 404 games over 9 NBA seasons (~55% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 404 |
| Minutes / game | 16.2 |
| Points / game | 8.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.9 |
| Assists / game | 1.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 18.0 |
| VORP | 3.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.0 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 8.7 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 241 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 21.2 |
| Born | 1997-04-26 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #38 overall (#5 PF) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 22 | Chandler Hutchison | redraft #41 |
| 23 | Aaron Holiday | redraft #29 |
| 24 | Anfernee Simons | redraft #23 |
| 26 | Landry Shamet | redraft #26 |
| 27 | Robert Williams | redraft #11 |
| 28 | Jacob Evans | redraft #57 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.