Aaron Holiday
PG, UCLA · 2018 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #23 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.7 years old on draft night (born 1996-09-30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UCLA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 505 games over 8 NBA seasons (~77% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 505 |
| Minutes / game | 16.1 |
| Points / game | 6.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.5 |
| Assists / game | 1.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 11.6 |
| VORP | 0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.0 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 187 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.7 |
| Born | 1996-09-30 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#5 PG) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 20 | Josh Okogie | redraft #27 |
| 21 | Grayson Allen | redraft #14 |
| 22 | Chandler Hutchison | redraft #41 |
| 24 | Anfernee Simons | redraft #23 |
| 25 | Moritz Wagner | redraft #20 |
| 26 | Landry Shamet | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.