Michael Porter Jr.
SF, Missouri · 2018 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #14 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: length. Details below.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 6' 11" tall (+1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.0 years old on draft night (born 1998-06-29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Missouri.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 402 games over 8 NBA seasons (~61% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 402 |
| Minutes / game | 29.6 |
| Points / game | 17.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.5 |
| Assists / game | 1.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 30.0 |
| VORP | 9.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.0 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 21.3 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 211 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 20.0 |
| Born | 1998-06-29 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#1 SF) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 11 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | redraft #2 |
| 12 | Miles Bridges | redraft #13 |
| 13 | Jerome Robinson | redraft #53 |
| 15 | Troy Brown Jr. | redraft #31 |
| 16 | Zhaire Smith | redraft #48 |
| 17 | Donte DiVincenzo | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.