Matas Buzelis

SF · 2024 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #11 (CHI)

Drafted#11CHI · 2024
Redraft rank (live)#16of 60 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #11~#202000–2021 median
Verdict (early)Beat his slot · +4spots vs. typical

Why he was overlooked Patterns

Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.

The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #5 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#11).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Age

    19.7 years old on draft night (born 2004-10-13).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    SF (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 163 games over 3 NBA seasons (~66% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.

Career numberslive

Seasons3
Games163
Minutes / game24.0
Points / game12.4
Rebounds / game4.6
Assists / game1.5
Win Shares (career)4.7
VORP0.3
Box Plus/Minus-1.7
2026-27 so far3 GP, 15 PPG (ESPN)

Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.

The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

111515303045456060Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Zaccharie Risacher: pick 1 → redraft 21Alex Sarr: pick 2 → redraft 27Reed Sheppard: pick 3 → redraft 3Stephon Castle: pick 4 → redraft 5Ron Holland: pick 5 → redraft 20Tidjane Salaün: pick 6 → redraft 30Donovan Clingan: pick 7 → redraft 1Rob Dillingham: pick 8 → redraft 54Zach Edey: pick 9 → redraft 7Cody Williams: pick 10 → redraft 53Nikola Topić: pick 12 → redraft 48Devin Carter: pick 13 → redraft 38Bub Carrington: pick 14 → redraft 46Kel'el Ware: pick 15 → redraft 2Jared McCain: pick 16 → redraft 24Dalton Knecht: pick 17 → redraft 25Tristan Da Silva: pick 18 → redraft 12Ja'Kobe Walter: pick 19 → redraft 13Jaylon Tyson: pick 20 → redraft 9Yves Missi: pick 21 → redraft 14DaRon Holmes: pick 22 → redraft 36AJ Johnson: pick 23 → redraft 55Kyshawn George: pick 24 → redraft 33Pacôme Dadiet: pick 25 → redraft 42Dillon Jones: pick 26 → redraft 35Terrence Shannon Jr.: pick 27 → redraft 29Ryan Dunn: pick 28 → redraft 22Isaiah Collier: pick 29 → redraft 32Baylor Scheierman: pick 30 → redraft 11Jonathan Mogbo: pick 31 → redraft 26Kyle Filipowski: pick 32 → redraft 10Tyler Smith: pick 33 → redraft 39Tyler Kolek: pick 34 → redraft 28Johnny Furphy: pick 35 → redraft 34Juan Nunez: pick 36 → redraft 56Bobi Klintman: pick 37 → redraft 45Ajay Mitchell: pick 38 → redraft 6Jaylen Wells: pick 39 → redraft 17Oso Ighodaro: pick 40 → redraft 8Adem Bona: pick 41 → redraft 19KJ Simpson: pick 42 → redraft 52Nikola Djurisic: pick 43 → redraft 57Pelle Larsson: pick 44 → redraft 15Jamal Shead: pick 45 → redraft 23Cam Christie: pick 46 → redraft 41Antonio Reeves: pick 47 → redraft 37Harrison Ingram: pick 48 → redraft 44Tristen Newton: pick 49 → redraft 49Enrique Freeman: pick 50 → redraft 40Melvin Ajinça: pick 51 → redraft 58Quinten Post: pick 52 → redraft 18Cam Spencer: pick 53 → redraft 4Anton Watson: pick 54 → redraft 50Bronny James: pick 55 → redraft 47Kevin McCullar Jr.: pick 56 → redraft 43Ulrich Chomche: pick 57 → redraft 51Ariel Hukporti: pick 58 → redraft 31: pick 59 → redraft 59: pick 60 → redraft 60

Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank		51.8%
n=765
Age
Under 20		51.7%
n=300
Position
Forward		51.2%
n=570

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight6' 8.75", 197 lbs
Age on draft night19.7
Born2004-10-13
ESPN pre-draft rank#5 overall (#3 SF)

Picked around him 2024 redraft

8Rob Dillinghamredraft #54
9Zach Edeyredraft #7
10Cody Williamsredraft #53
12Nikola Topićredraft #48
13Devin Carterredraft #38
14Bub Carringtonredraft #46

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.