Bub Carrington
PG, Pitt · 2024 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #14 (POR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #19 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.9 years old on draft night (born 2005-07-21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Pitt.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 170 games over 3 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 170 |
| Minutes / game | 28.6 |
| Points / game | 10.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.7 |
| Assists / game | 4.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.0 |
| VORP | -3.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.6 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 7.3 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3.75", 195 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.9 |
| Born | 2005-07-21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #19 overall (#10 PG) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 11 | Matas Buzelis | redraft #16 |
| 12 | Nikola Topić | redraft #48 |
| 13 | Devin Carter | redraft #38 |
| 15 | Kel'el Ware | redraft #2 |
| 16 | Jared McCain | redraft #24 |
| 17 | Dalton Knecht | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.