Luis Flores
SG, Manhattan University · 2004 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #55 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #74 (#15 at his position); he went #55, 19 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.2 years old on draft night (born 1981-04-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Manhattan University.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 16 games over 1 NBA season (~20% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 16 |
| Minutes / game | 4.8 |
| Points / game | 2.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.2 |
| Assists / game | 0.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.0 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.8 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 195 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.2 |
| Born | 1981-04-11 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #74 overall (#15 SG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 52 | Romain Sato | redraft #54 |
| 53 | Matt Freije | redraft #43 |
| 54 | Rickey Paulding | redraft #55 |
| 56 | Marcus Douthit | redraft #56 |
| 57 | Sergei Karaulov | redraft #57 |
| 58 | Blake Stepp | redraft #58 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.