Luc Mbah a Moute
SF, UCLA · 2008 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #37 (MIL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#37). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.8 years old on draft night (born 1986-09-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UCLA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 689 games over 12 NBA seasons (~70% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 12 |
| Games | 689 |
| Minutes / game | 23.3 |
| Points / game | 6.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.1 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 26.0 |
| VORP | 2.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 221 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.8 |
| Born | Yaounde, Cameroon |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#5 SF) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 34 | Mario Chalmers | redraft #17 |
| 35 | DeAndre Jordan | redraft #4 |
| 36 | Ömer Aşık | redraft #26 |
| 38 | Kyle Weaver | redraft #37 |
| 39 | Sonny Weems | redraft #49 |
| 40 | Chris Douglas-Roberts | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.