LeBron James

SF · 2003 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #1 (CLE)

Drafted#1CLE · 2003
Redraft rank#1of 58 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #1~#72000–2021 median
VerdictBeat his slot · +6spots vs. typical

Why he was overlooked Patterns

Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.

  • Availability

    Played 1624 games over 24 NBA seasons (~83% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Age

    18.5 years old on draft night (born 1984-12-30).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    SF (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.

Career numbers

Seasons24
Games1624
Minutes / game37.6
Points / game26.8
Rebounds / game7.5
Assists / game7.4
Win Shares (career)276.9
VORP159.4
Box Plus/Minus8.4

The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

11151530304545Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Darko Miličić: pick 2 → redraft 32Carmelo Anthony: pick 3 → redraft 3Chris Bosh: pick 4 → redraft 4Dwyane Wade: pick 5 → redraft 2Chris Kaman: pick 6 → redraft 20Kirk Hinrich: pick 7 → redraft 8T.J. Ford: pick 8 → redraft 22Mike Sweetney: pick 9 → redraft 31Jarvis Hayes: pick 10 → redraft 29Mickaël Piétrus: pick 11 → redraft 21Nick Collison: pick 12 → redraft 14Marcus Banks: pick 13 → redraft 34Luke Ridnour: pick 14 → redraft 15Reece Gaines: pick 15 → redraft 44Troy Bell: pick 16 → redraft 43Žarko Čabarkapa: pick 17 → redraft 36David West: pick 18 → redraft 5Sasha Pavlović: pick 19 → redraft 33Dahntay Jones: pick 20 → redraft 30Boris Diaw: pick 21 → redraft 7Zoran Planinić: pick 22 → redraft 35Travis Outlaw: pick 23 → redraft 24Brian Cook: pick 24 → redraft 27Carlos Delfino: pick 25 → redraft 17Ndudi Ebi: pick 26 → redraft 39Kendrick Perkins: pick 27 → redraft 19Leandro Barbosa: pick 28 → redraft 13Josh Howard: pick 29 → redraft 12Maciej Lampe: pick 30 → redraft 41Jason Kapono: pick 31 → redraft 28Luke Walton: pick 32 → redraft 25Jerome Beasley: pick 33 → redraft 45Sofoklis Schortsanitis: pick 34 → redraft 48Szymon Szewczyk: pick 35 → redraft 49Mario Austin: pick 36 → redraft 50Travis Hansen: pick 37 → redraft 38Steve Blake: pick 38 → redraft 16Slavko Vraneš: pick 39 → redraft 47Derrick Zimmerman: pick 40 → redraft 46Willie Green: pick 41 → redraft 26Zaza Pachulia: pick 42 → redraft 9Keith Bogans: pick 43 → redraft 23Malick Badiane: pick 44 → redraft 51Matt Bonner: pick 45 → redraft 11Sani Bečirovič: pick 46 → redraft 52Mo Williams: pick 47 → redraft 10James Lang: pick 48 → redraft 40James Jones: pick 49 → redraft 18Paccelis Morlende: pick 50 → redraft 53Kyle Korver: pick 51 → redraft 6Remon van de Hare: pick 52 → redraft 54Tommy Smith: pick 53 → redraft 55Nedžad Sinanović: pick 54 → redraft 56Rick Rickert: pick 55 → redraft 57Brandon Hunter: pick 56 → redraft 37Xue Yuyang: pick 57 → redraft 58Andreas Glyniadakis: pick 58 → redraft 42

Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank		51.8%
n=765
Age
Under 20		51.7%
n=300
Position
Forward		51.2%
n=570

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight6' 8", 240 lbs
Age on draft night18.5
Born1984-12-30
ESPN pre-draft rank#1 overall (#1 SF)

Picked around him 2003 redraft

2Darko Miličićredraft #32
3Carmelo Anthonyredraft #3
4Chris Boshredraft #4

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.