Carmelo Anthony
SF, Syracuse · 2003 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #3 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 1260 games over 19 NBA seasons (~81% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.1 years old on draft night (born 1984-05-29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Syracuse.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 19 |
| Games | 1260 |
| Minutes / game | 34.5 |
| Points / game | 22.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.2 |
| Assists / game | 2.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 108.5 |
| VORP | 36.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.3 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 233 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.1 |
| Born | 1984-05-29 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#2 SF) |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 1 | LeBron James | redraft #1 |
| 2 | Darko Miličić | redraft #32 |
| 4 | Chris Bosh | redraft #4 |
| 5 | Dwyane Wade | redraft #2 |
| 6 | Chris Kaman | redraft #20 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.