Josh Selby
PG, Kansas · 2011 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #49 (MEM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 38 games over 2 NBA seasons (~23% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #33 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #49: teams let him slide 16 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.2 years old on draft night (born 1991-03-27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kansas.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 5" at 6' 3" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 38 |
| Minutes / game | 7.8 |
| Points / game | 2.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.5 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.7 |
| VORP | -0.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -9.5 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 195 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 5" |
| Age on draft night | 20.2 |
| Born | Baltimore, MD |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #33 overall (#9 PG) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 46 | Andrew Goudelock | redraft #52 |
| 47 | Travis Leslie | redraft #46 |
| 48 | Keith Benson | redraft #54 |
| 50 | Lavoy Allen | redraft #28 |
| 51 | Jon Diebler | redraft #55 |
| 52 | Vernon Macklin | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.