Jarred Vanderbilt
PF, Kentucky · 2018 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #41 (ORL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #55 (#8 at his position); he went #41, 14 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.2 years old on draft night (born 1999-04-03).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kentucky.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 374 games over 8 NBA seasons (~57% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 374 |
| Minutes / game | 19.5 |
| Points / game | 5.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.9 |
| Assists / game | 1.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 18.6 |
| VORP | 3.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.2 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 213 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.2 |
| Born | 1999-04-03 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #55 overall (#8 PF) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 38 | Khyri Thomas | redraft #44 |
| 39 | Isaac Bonga | redraft #39 |
| 40 | Rodions Kurucs | redraft #38 |
| 42 | Bruce Brown | redraft #16 |
| 43 | Justin Jackson | redraft #58 |
| 44 | Issuf Sanon | redraft #59 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.