Jared Butler
PG, Baylor · 2021 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #40 (NOP)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #40: teams let him slide 17 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.8 years old on draft night (born 2000-08-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Baylor.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 148 games over 4 NBA seasons (~45% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 148 |
| Minutes / game | 13.8 |
| Points / game | 6.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.5 |
| Assists / game | 2.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 2.5 |
| VORP | 0.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 195 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.8 |
| Born | 2000-08-25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#4 PG) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 37 | JT Thor | redraft #41 |
| 38 | Ayo Dosunmu | redraft #10 |
| 39 | Neemias Queta | redraft #13 |
| 41 | Joe Wieskamp | redraft #47 |
| 42 | Isaiah Livers | redraft #37 |
| 43 | Greg Brown III | redraft #46 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.