Greg Brown III
PF, Texas · 2021 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #43 (NOP)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 70 games over 3 NBA seasons (~28% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #51 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#43).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.8 years old on draft night (born 2001-09-01).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Texas.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 70 |
| Minutes / game | 11.0 |
| Points / game | 3.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.3 |
| Assists / game | 0.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.2 |
| VORP | -0.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.1 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 205 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.8 |
| Born | 2001-09-01 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #51 overall (#9 PF) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 40 | Jared Butler | redraft #33 |
| 41 | Joe Wieskamp | redraft #47 |
| 42 | Isaiah Livers | redraft #37 |
| 44 | Kessler Edwards | redraft #36 |
| 45 | Juhann Begarin | redraft #58 |
| 46 | Dalano Banton | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.