Adreian Payne
PF, Michigan State · 2014 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #15 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 107 games over 4 NBA seasons (~33% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.4 years old on draft night (born 1991-02-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Michigan State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 4" at 6' 10" tall (+6.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 107 |
| Minutes / game | 13.1 |
| Points / game | 4.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.9 |
| Assists / game | 0.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.6 |
| VORP | -1.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.9 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 239 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 4" |
| Age on draft night | 23.4 |
| Born | Dayton, OH |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#6 PF) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 12 | Dario Šarić | redraft #19 |
| 13 | Zach LaVine | redraft #8 |
| 14 | T.J. Warren | redraft #18 |
| 16 | Jusuf Nurkić | redraft #10 |
| 17 | James Young | redraft #38 |
| 18 | Tyler Ennis | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.