Aaron Brooks
PG, Oregon · 2007 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #26 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.4 years old on draft night (born 1985-01-14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Oregon.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 645 games over 10 NBA seasons (~79% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 645 |
| Minutes / game | 20.8 |
| Points / game | 9.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.7 |
| Assists / game | 3.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 19.2 |
| VORP | 2.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.2 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 161 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.4 |
| Born | Seattle, WA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#4 PG) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 23 | Wilson Chandler | redraft #15 |
| 24 | Rudy Fernández | redraft #20 |
| 25 | Morris Almond | redraft #48 |
| 27 | Arron Afflalo | redraft #12 |
| 28 | Tiago Splitter | redraft #16 |
| 29 | Alando Tucker | redraft #38 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.