Zack Moss
RB, Utah · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #86 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#86).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 14% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 61 of ~84 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2024 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 61 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 18.0 |
| Rushing | 558 att, 2,318 yds, 16 TD |
| Receiving | 98 rec, 710 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#6 RB) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 83 | Lloyd Cushenberry III | redraft #56 |
| 84 | Terrell Lewis | redraft #155 |
| 85 | Julian Blackmon | redraft #63 |
| 87 | Anfernee Jennings | redraft #67 |
| 88 | Jordan Elliott | redraft #50 |
| 89 | Cameron Dantzler | redraft #120 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.