Zach Brown
LB, North Carolina · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #52 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #74 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#52). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 97% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2019 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 41 |
| Defense | 462 tackles, 17.5 sacks, 7 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Arm / hand | 33.2" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #74 overall (#5 LB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 49 | Kendall Reyes | redraft #73 |
| 50 | Isaiah Pead | redraft #187 |
| 51 | Jerel Worthy | redraft #159 |
| 53 | Devon Still | redraft #161 |
| 54 | Ryan Broyles | redraft #164 |
| 55 | Peter Konz | redraft #93 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.