Xavier Hutchinson
WR, Iowa St. · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #205 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #127 overall (#18 at his position), but he lasted until pick #205: teams let him slide 78 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 48 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 203 lbs: faster than 25% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.7 |
| Rushing | 10 att, 75 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 73 rec, 876 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 203 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.35 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.38" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #127 overall (#18 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 202 | Christian Braswell | redraft #199 |
| 203 | Amari Burney | redraft #187 |
| 204 | Jarrick Bernard-Converse | redraft #229 |
| 206 | Andrei Iosivas | redraft #88 |
| 207 | Anders Carlson | redraft #174 |
| 208 | Erick Hallett | redraft #196 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.