Xavien Howard
CB, Baylor · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #38 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #80 (#9 at his position); he went #38, 42 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 15% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 104 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~63%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 104 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 58 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 58.0 |
| Defense | 265 tackles, 2 sacks, 29 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 7.18 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #80 overall (#9 CB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 35 | Hunter Henry | redraft #44 |
| 36 | Myles Jack | redraft #42 |
| 37 | Chris Jones | redraft #4 |
| 39 | Noah Spence | redraft #152 |
| 40 | Sterling Shepard | redraft #57 |
| 41 | Reggie Ragland | redraft #83 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.