Willie Reid
WR, Florida St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #95 (PIT)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #128 (#2 at his position); he went #95, 33 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 7 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2007 (~22%). Last NFL season: 2007.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at 188 lbs: faster than 91% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 7 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 4 rec, 54 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 188 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34 s |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #128 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 92 | Jason Hatcher | redraft #63 |
| 93 | Dominique Byrd | redraft #204 |
| 94 | Freddy Keiaho | redraft #104 |
| 96 | Gerris Wilkinson | redraft #144 |
| 97 | Eric Smith | redraft #97 |
| 98 | Owen Daniels | redraft #48 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.