Will Grier
QB, West Virginia · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #100 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2019 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #124 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#100).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
West Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Passing | 28/52, 228 yds, undefined TD, 4 INT |
| Rushing | 7 att, 22 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #124 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 97 | Bobby Evans | redraft #136 |
| 98 | Quincy Williams | redraft #26 |
| 99 | Mike Edwards | redraft #97 |
| 101 | Yodny Cajuste | redraft #162 |
| 102 | Alexander Mattison | redraft #78 |
| 103 | Hakeem Butler | redraft #229 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.