Wesley Johnson
OL, Vanderbilt · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #173 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #188 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#173). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Vanderbilt: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.11 40-yard dash at 297 lbs: faster than 74% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 51 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2018 (~64%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 51 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -5 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 297 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.11 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.64 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.1" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #188 overall (#5 OL) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 170 | Keith Reaser | redraft #175 |
| 171 | Jordan Tripp | redraft #168 |
| 172 | Jimmy Staten | redraft #235 |
| 174 | Devon Kennard | redraft #48 |
| 175 | John Urschel | redraft #131 |
| 176 | Jared Abbrederis | redraft #191 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.