Vincent Jackson
WR, Northern Colorado · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #61 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #100 (#15 at his position); he went #61, 39 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northern Colorado: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 155 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2016 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 155 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 77 |
| Rushing | 15 att, 161 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 540 rec, 9,080 yds, 57 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #100 overall (#15 WR) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 58 | Terrence Murphy | redraft #211 |
| 59 | Jonathan Babineaux | redraft #19 |
| 60 | Kelvin Hayden | redraft #76 |
| 62 | Bryant McFadden | redraft #68 |
| 63 | Matt McCoy | redraft #123 |
| 64 | Adam Terry | redraft #121 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.