Vernand Morency
RB, Oklahoma St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #67 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#73).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 13% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 39 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2007 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 39 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Rushing | 171 att, 726 yds, 4 TD |
| Receiving | 57 rec, 404 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #67 overall (#6 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 70 | Channing Crowder | redraft #59 |
| 71 | Alex Smith | redraft #115 |
| 72 | Stanley Wilson | redraft #142 |
| 74 | Justin Tuck | redraft #12 |
| 75 | Eric Green | redraft #108 |
| 76 | Karl Paymah | redraft #136 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.