Tyrann Mathieu
DB, LSU · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #69 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 180 of ~196 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2024 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #63 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#69). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 186 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 180 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 67 |
| Defense | 685 tackles, 11 sacks, 36 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 186 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 4 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.14 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.1" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #63 overall (#8 DB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 66 | Sio Moore | redraft #97 |
| 67 | Bennie Logan | redraft #54 |
| 68 | Leon McFadden | redraft #187 |
| 70 | Blidi Wreh-Wilson | redraft #126 |
| 71 | T.J. McDonald | redraft #65 |
| 72 | Brian Winters | redraft #50 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.