Tyler Shough
QB, Louisville · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #40 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #58 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#40). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 81% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 10 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~59%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 10.1 |
| Passing | 374/562, 3,827 yds, 22 TD, 11 INT |
| Rushing | 66 att, 290 yds, 5 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #58 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 37 | Jonah Savaiinaea | redraft #26 |
| 38 | TreVeyon Henderson | redraft #21 |
| 39 | Luther Burden | redraft #30 |
| 41 | T.J. Sanders | redraft #128 |
| 42 | Mason Taylor | redraft #77 |
| 43 | Alfred Collins | redraft #139 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.