Tyler Gaffney
RB, Stanford · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #204 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #153 overall (#14 at his position), but he lasted until pick #204: teams let him slide 51 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 62% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.78 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.2" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #153 overall (#14 RB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 201 | Marion Grice | redraft #209 |
| 202 | Tavon Rooks | redraft #241 |
| 203 | Andrew Jackson | redraft #198 |
| 205 | Luke Bowanko | redraft #120 |
| 206 | Jemea Thomas | redraft #225 |
| 207 | Matt Paradis | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.