Tyeler Davison
DT, Fresno St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #154 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~130 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2022 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #193 (#18 at his position); he went #154, 39 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.18 40-yard dash at 316 lbs: faster than 10% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 111 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| Defense | 101 tackles, 5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 316 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.18 s |
| Bench press | 32 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.53 s |
| Shuttle | 4.46 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #193 overall (#18 DT) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 151 | David Parry | redraft #103 |
| 152 | Jarvis Harrison | redraft #235 |
| 153 | Kyle Emanuel | redraft #89 |
| 155 | Karlos Williams | redraft #158 |
| 156 | Tony Lippett | redraft #137 |
| 157 | C.J. Uzomah | redraft #98 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.