Ty Johnson
RB, Maryland · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #186 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 106 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~91%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #293 (#28 at his position); he went #186, 107 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Maryland: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 110 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 18.4 |
| Rushing | 331 att, 1,476 yds, 8 TD |
| Receiving | 147 rec, 1,432 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 15 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 210 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 29.75" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #293 overall (#28 RB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 183 | Justin Skule | redraft #95 |
| 184 | Travis Fulgham | redraft #171 |
| 185 | Ka'dar Hollman | redraft #168 |
| 187 | Juwann Winfree | redraft #204 |
| 188 | David Long | redraft #74 |
| 189 | Drew Forbes | redraft #198 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.