Troy Fleming
RB, Tennessee · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #191 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #158 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #191: teams let him slide 33 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 29 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2005 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2005.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 21% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 29 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Rushing | 7 att, 40 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 29 rec, 233 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 15 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2005 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.94 s |
| Shuttle | 3.91 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #158 overall (#12 RB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 188 | Andy Lee | redraft #47 |
| 189 | Craig Terrill | redraft #107 |
| 190 | Josh Sewell | redraft #239 |
| 192 | Dexter Wynn | redraft #144 |
| 193 | Jim Sorgi | redraft #138 |
| 194 | Matt Kranchick | redraft #206 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.