Tristan Wirfs
T, Iowa · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #13 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 90 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~89%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at 320 lbs: faster than 99% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 97 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 64 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 67.2 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 11 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 320 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.85 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.68 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#3 T) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 10 | Jedrick Wills Jr. | redraft #60 |
| 11 | Mekhi Becton | redraft #70 |
| 12 | Henry Ruggs III | redraft #131 |
| 14 | Javon Kinlaw | redraft #46 |
| 15 | Jerry Jeudy | redraft #34 |
| 16 | AJ Terrell | redraft #39 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.