Trey Sermon
RB, Ohio St. · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #88 (SFO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~54%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #79 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#88).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 37% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 46 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.0 |
| Rushing | 134 att, 505 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 22 rec, 138 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.83 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.38" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #79 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 85 | Amari Rodgers | redraft #186 |
| 86 | Wyatt Davis | redraft #221 |
| 87 | Kendrick Green | redraft #132 |
| 89 | Nico Collins | redraft #19 |
| 90 | Patrick Jones II | redraft #113 |
| 91 | Anthony Schwartz | redraft #179 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.