Trevor Davis
WR, California · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #163 (GNB)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #226 (#32 at his position); he went #163, 63 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 188 lbs: faster than 69% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 43 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2019 (~67%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 43 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Rushing | 6 att, 86 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 16 rec, 205 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 188 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.6 s |
| Shuttle | 4.22 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #226 overall (#32 WR) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 160 | Kentrell Brothers | redraft #164 |
| 161 | Christian Westerman | redraft #186 |
| 162 | Kevin Hogan | redraft #199 |
| 164 | Halapoulivaati Vaitai | redraft #76 |
| 165 | Tyreek Hill | redraft #3 |
| 166 | D.J. Reader | redraft #31 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.