Trenton Simpson
LB, Clemson · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #86 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #54 overall (#1 at his position), but he lasted until pick #86: teams let him slide 32 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 48 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 235 lbs: faster than 97% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.1 |
| Defense | 108 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 235 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Arm / hand | 32.38" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #54 overall (#1 LB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 83 | Riley Moss | redraft #63 |
| 84 | De'Von Achane | redraft #8 |
| 85 | Daiyan Henley | redraft #28 |
| 87 | Ji'Ayir Brown | redraft #64 |
| 88 | Tank Bigsby | redraft #101 |
| 89 | Kobie Turner | redraft #22 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.