Trent Edwards
QB, Stanford · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #92 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #44 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #92: teams let him slide 48 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.76 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 61% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2012 (~40%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Passing | 563/929, 6,033 yds, 26 TD, 30 INT |
| Rushing | 78 att, 330 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| 3-cone | 7.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.46 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #44 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 89 | Aaron Rouse | redraft #128 |
| 90 | Tony Hunt | redraft #206 |
| 91 | Mario Henderson | redraft #107 |
| 93 | Garrett Wolfe | redraft #167 |
| 94 | Michael Okwo | redraft #229 |
| 95 | Dante Hughes | redraft #154 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.