Tremon Smith
WR, Central Arkansas · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #196 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #148 overall (#21 at his position), but he lasted until pick #196: teams let him slide 48 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 116 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~87%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- School
Central Arkansas: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 123 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 8.6 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 7 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 66 tackles, 0 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 183 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 8" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #148 overall (#21 WR) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 193 | Chris Covington | redraft #231 |
| 194 | Russell Gage | redraft #92 |
| 195 | Sebastian Joseph-Day | redraft #43 |
| 197 | Shaun Dion Hamilton | redraft #150 |
| 198 | Kahlil McKenzie | redraft #223 |
| 199 | Luke Falk | redraft #225 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.