Tre'von Moehrig
S, TCU · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #43 (LVR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 81 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~95%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#43).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 87 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 27.5 |
| Defense | 278 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 7 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#1 S) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 40 | Richie Grant | redraft #95 |
| 41 | Levi Onwuzurike | redraft #125 |
| 42 | Liam Eichenberg | redraft #54 |
| 44 | Kelvin Joseph | redraft #175 |
| 45 | Walker Little | redraft #68 |
| 46 | Jackson Carman | redraft #149 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.