Travis Frederick
C, Wisconsin · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #31 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 96 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2019 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #71 (#1 at his position); he went #31, 40 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.58 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 1% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 96 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 60 |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.58 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 97" |
| 3-cone | 7.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.76 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #71 overall (#1 C) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 28 | Sylvester Williams | redraft #52 |
| 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson | redraft #30 |
| 30 | Alec Ogletree | redraft #20 |
| 32 | Matt Elam | redraft #109 |
| 33 | Johnathan Cyprien | redraft #63 |
| 34 | Justin Hunter | redraft #123 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.