Trace McSorley
QB, Penn St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #197 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #259 (#11 at his position); he went #197, 62 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 9 of ~66 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2022 (~14%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 90% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 9 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Passing | 48/93, 502 yds, 1 TD, 5 INT |
| Rushing | 21 att, 79 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.13" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #259 overall (#11 QB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 194 | Dexter Williams | redraft #219 |
| 195 | Xavier Crawford | redraft #203 |
| 196 | Blessuan Austin | redraft #143 |
| 198 | Tim Harris | redraft #225 |
| 199 | Gerri Green | redraft #234 |
| 200 | Emeke Egbule | redraft #180 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.