Tony Pollard
RB, Memphis · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #128 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~95%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #181 (#12 at his position); he went #128, 53 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Memphis: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 53% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 118 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 45 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 46.9 |
| Rushing | 1351 att, 6,131 yds, 34 TD |
| Receiving | 258 rec, 1,787 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Arm / hand | 30" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #181 overall (#12 RB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 125 | Renell Wren | redraft #188 |
| 126 | Riley Ridley | redraft #200 |
| 127 | Iman Marshall | redraft #224 |
| 129 | Isaiah Johnson | redraft #194 |
| 130 | Drue Tranquill | redraft #44 |
| 131 | Wes Martin | redraft #154 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.