Tony Pike
QB, Cincinnati · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #204 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2010 (~6%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #86 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #204: teams let him slide 118 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.90 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 25% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 1 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Passing | 6/12, 47 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.90 s |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.4" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #86 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 201 | Jorrick Calvin | redraft #209 |
| 202 | Jordan Pugh | redraft #154 |
| 203 | Scotty McGee | redraft #245 |
| 205 | Ted Larsen | redraft #45 |
| 206 | Kyle Williams | redraft #142 |
| 207 | Myron Rolle | redraft #246 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.