Tom Brandstater
QB, Fresno St. · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #174 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #214 (#9 at his position); he went #174, 40 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2011 (~2%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 32% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 1 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Passing | undefined/2, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #214 overall (#9 QB) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 171 | Nate Davis | redraft #243 |
| 172 | David Buehler | redraft #167 |
| 173 | Javon Ringer | redraft #136 |
| 175 | Quinten Lawrence | redraft #216 |
| 176 | Spencer Adkins | redraft #170 |
| 177 | Don Carey | redraft #108 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.