Tom Brady
QB, Michigan · 2000 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #199 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 335 of ~370 possible regular-season games from 2000 through 2022 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.28 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 1% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 335 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 21 |
| Pro Bowls | 15 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 184 |
| Passing | 7753/12050, 89,214 yds, 649 TD, 212 INT |
| Rushing | 693 att, 1,123 yds, 28 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 65 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2000 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2000 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.28 s |
| Vertical | 24.5" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 7.2 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2000 redraft
| 196 | Emanuel Smith | redraft #215 |
| 197 | Robaire Smith | redraft #45 |
| 198 | Matt Bowen | redraft #105 |
| 200 | Sherrod Gideon | redraft #237 |
| 201 | David Nugent | redraft #174 |
| 202 | Todd Husak | redraft #216 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.